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Notes · Money math

Debt snowball vs. avalanche: which one actually pays off faster?

Two famous ways to pay off debt, two opposite pieces of advice. Snowball says knock out your smallest balance first, for the momentum. Avalanche says kill your highest interest rate first, for the math. The honest answer to "which is better" is smaller than the internet fights suggest — and it turns entirely on one number you can compute in an afternoon. Here it is, worked to the dollar.

The two methods, in one sentence each

Both methods do the same thing with your money and differ on exactly one decision — where the extra payment goes. You always pay every minimum on every debt. Then, whatever spare money you can throw at debt each month, you aim all of it at a single target until that debt hits zero. When it does, its old minimum plus your extra rolls onto the next target. That rolling, compounding attack is the whole engine. The only question is which debt sits in the crosshairs first:

A real example: five debts, $35,700

Here's a fairly ordinary tangle of consumer debt. Say you can find $250 a month beyond the minimums to attack it:

DebtBalanceAPRMinimum
Store card$1,20024.99%$45
Credit card A$4,80021.99%$120
Credit card B$6,20018.99%$155
Car loan$9,5006.90%$305
Student loan$14,0005.50%$165

Notice the tension the two methods are arguing about: your smallest balance (the store card) also happens to be your highest rate here, so both methods agree to hit it first. But after that they split — snowball goes for the next-smallest balance (Credit card A), while avalanche keeps chasing the highest rates and only turns to the low-rate car and student loans at the very end. Run the whole thing month by month and here's what each path actually costs:

ApproachTime to debt-freeTotal interestInterest saved
Minimums only9 years≈ $12,900
Snowball (+$250)5 yr 4 mo≈ $7,390≈ $5,520
Avalanche (+$250)5 yr 0 mo≈ $6,890≈ $6,020

Two things jump out, and they're both true at once:

The honest headline: avalanche is always at least as cheap as snowball — that's just arithmetic. But in typical portfolios the lead is a few hundred dollars and a few months, not thousands. Which means the deciding factor usually isn't the math. It's whether you'll actually stick with it.

So why does anyone choose snowball?

Because a plan you abandon in month seven saves you $0, and avalanche has a cruel failure mode: if your highest-rate debt also has a big balance, you can grind for a year and watch zero debts disappear. Snowball is engineered against exactly that. In the example, the store card is gone in month 5 and Credit card A in month 19 — two visible wins early, when motivation is most fragile. There's real behavioral research suggesting people who start with the small-balance approach are more likely to stay the course. A "worse" plan you finish beats a "better" plan you quit.

So the actual decision rule is refreshingly practical:

What you should not do is agonize over the choice for three months while paying minimums the whole time. That indecision quietly costs more than picking the "wrong" one of the two ever will.

Do this for your own debts

The dashboard that runs both plans for you

List your debts and one extra-payment number, then flip a single cell between snowball and avalanche and watch your payoff order, debt-free date, and total interest saved recalculate. The full month-by-month cascade is right there to inspect — pure formulas, no macros, works in Excel and Google Sheets.

Instant download · the product page shows the actual workbook, full size

Three numbers to check before you commit to either

  1. Your true extra payment. Everything above lives or dies on the $250. Be honest about what you can sustain — a smaller number you actually pay every month beats a heroic one you fund with a credit card. Find it before you argue about ordering.
  2. The gap between your two plans. Run your own numbers both ways. If avalanche saves you $3,000, that's worth some willpower; if it saves you $180, just pick the one you'll finish and move on.
  3. Any rate that's about to change. A 0% promo card expiring into 26%, or a variable rate climbing, can reshuffle the avalanche order overnight. Real APRs beat last year's assumptions.

One caveat to close: none of this weighs paying down debt against, say, capturing a full 401(k) match or building a first emergency cushion — those can beat debt payoff and are judgment calls, not spreadsheet output. What the math above gives you is the honest price of each debt path, to the dollar, so the judgment is made with real numbers instead of vibes. This is a planning tool, not financial advice.